<<While it may be good for interest rates, it's not good for corporate profitability... We may be seeing the effects of the prior five rate hikes... If so, this will give the FED something to think about next week...>>
You have point but a soft landing is what AG and FED would be looking at, if we have streams of good numbers indicating a soft landing and a new possibility that what we are seeing is the top of new interest rate cycle, the market would welcome it even if fed rises by another .50%, that is already in the market, for me a rally will be coming if market considers this one to be the last one, as I have been saying all along the spreads on AAA corporate debt and TB's are taking their toll too, we will see that the real rate of interest which is at historical high will have a cooling down effect on the economy, this new economy has something going for it and the old tools are not sharp enough to measure the inner mechanisms however one cannot based his decisions on a single number, it is the series of number, and I never ever forget that market discounts future , at the moment the market htinks that we are going for a hard landing, if we don't have one I would think that in a soft landing we will see corporate profits continue to expand as a result of higher productivity and bigger global markets and lower uncertainities, the real rally would be once the market determines that the cycle of upward ticks is done and dusted with..
James this is going to be the 3rd test of IIX 200 days MA with one day break on each test, if we maintain this I will expect this one to be one hell of a big run.. but the big day would be PPI and CPI releases,,.. I have nicely positioned myself with some out of the monies on IDTI RNWK DISH AAPL also I got in to MOT INTC TXN.. I don't think I will have the time to save 50% of the premiums if PPI is on the wrong side but to keep the thrill we keep this trade on, that level of being high on the trade is the art of our whole strategy.. gg |
