One question I have regarding component shortages is, does it affect demand in the long run? If a company orders something and has to wait for it, rather than get it immediately, what effect does it have in the end? They still buy it, it's just delayed gratification. It's not like the customer can go somewhere else easily, because all the vendors have the same shortages (or worse, since the leaders will get some preferential treatment).
If the part is a sole-sourced part, (for example, SONET Physical interfaces usually are, since they aren't pin-compatible with each other) then you CAN'T get the part from another vendor anyway. Now if all the vendors are having the same problem, then you have a really tough job
as an engineer. You have to try and design your way around things like that, and sometimes it's impossible.
But, to answer your question, sooner or later, someone down the food chain will go with some other vendor. What I mean by this is (purely hypothetical situation here): Say I work for Nortel and I design a piece of communications equipment with a part from Company X, instead of Company Y. Company X can't meet my demand for the part, so I can't fill my orders to Pac-Bell. Pac-Bell decides to go with a piece of communications gear from Lucent, since that gear uses the parts from Company Y. And if Pac-Bell doesn't make this decision, then THEIR customers might make the decision to go with a different service provider.
I guess I'm kind of rambling, but that's the best I can describe it from a my viewpoint.
Anyone else have a different take on it? |
