Intel Corporation (INTC) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 34.50

+2.6%

3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: John Hull who wrote (103318)	5/11/2000 2:28:00 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) of 186894

Dear John: Most analysis by those who publish is criticized by those who do not put theirs out to view. IMHO, there will be no semi down turn. Intel will fare worse in the future than those with rosy glasses that everyone seems to have on. Thus, it seems to hold up better than the news would currently indicate. If their reputation is lost or is downgraded, the premium (since the news is worse than the stock price would indicate) would be reduced. This means that Intel will trade at a much lower PE (forward) than now. Probably like around 20 (this level depends on how much its reputation suffers) yielding a stock price of around $50. Now since the stock is $113 this means that the reputation on Intel is allowing the stock to trade at a multiple of 2.26 over a no reputation. Although a bad reputation can even cause a company to be worth less than book (around $9.76). AMD is at a PE (Forward) of around 18. Does your analysis include overhead? Like stock options, other losing divisions, etc? Most analyses of Intel I have seen do not take these into account. If you take out the Computation Group, Intel lost $400M in the last quarter. I believe this includes the division that manufactures flash. This is what their statements to the SEC read for the last quarter (just take the overall amounts and subtract one time gains, losses and the CPU div). So in any CPU downturn, even if CPU makes almost $400M, Intel starts having losses. What would they be worth then? AMD was considered to be worth $16 at last downturn and their book value is $13.31 (per share). Thus in a large downturn in the CPU group only, letting flash and all other groups alone, AMD would be worth per share more than Intel. Intel better hope that the CPU market does not tank. Pete

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next