Hi Edward-
<First on the commercial product thing: AMTX is at the very least not
worse of than any other DMT vendor>
I agree to a degree... but since USRX has a lot of market clout, they will likely get quantities of Aware-C6X before Amati get's their C6X. USRX's timeline for v.everything is summer (at under $200). Will they make it? Who knows. Will they have a commercial DMT to market before Amati? IMO, almost for certain.
Further, do you think if there are significant sales to be had that MOT won't be involved in direct sales of CG, competing with Amati?
Sure they may pay AMTX $3 (although we don't know numbers and our favorite clown pointed out in a detailed and caffeinated post awhile ago that Amati claimed 3 of the partners will "use" AMTX-DMT and 1 will license. Are the other 3 just window dressing freebies to try to entice/pressure others to pony up the $$$ - which doesn't seem to be working... anyway, I digress), but will their business model work on predominate licensing?
And then again, if the market continues to react against Amati's seeming attempt at a standards "ransom" by going Aware and/or Paradyne CAP, then AMTX loses even THIS revenue. (And who keeps saying that Aware licenses from AMTX? I'd be interested in seeing the press release to this effect...)
<...The second possibility is that the xDSL modems would not really be marketed en masse directly to the consumers, but will be bought mainly by service providers directly from network integrators. Customers would then be restricted to leasing or buying the modems from the service provider or buying compatible modems on the open market.>
Interesting point. This might be what the strategy is and it might work for Amati, although I have my doubts that all RBOCs, ISPs and CLECs would make such a large $$$ commitment and simply PRESUME that the public will just use their prescribed modems.. especially when the likes of USRX, et al., are involved.
But assuming such a network integrator approach does occur.. what of competition even in this scenario? What of existing network integrators with significant cash and market clout (or at least more than Amati could bring to the table) would let Amati scoop potential business in this trendy and potentially significant market?
< To date we have:
1) Siemens partnership deal
2) Sumitomo partnership deal
3) NEC partnership deal >
These are definitely major relationships for Amati.
< 4) US System Integrator partnership??? >
As you point out, this is a current vacuum to be filled, hopefully to be done favorably, and in time, for Amati.
< All in all, nobody has worked harder and achieved more in establishing these marketing/distribution partnerships then Amati has.>
Compelling arguments, Edwards. I'm glad you brought them forward. A pivotal question in your scenario would seem to be whether the network integrators approach will work in general, and whether it will be successful for Amati.
Thanks for sharing you perspective.
Steve |
