Techplayer, don't take those assumptions personally, the assumptions are made on a macro basis, which i believe are valid. An interview with a 20 something manager yesterday, he said that if you went to a party with this crowd, they would all say they were invested in yhoo, jdsu, cmgi, ebay, etc.
you got the same thing at the money manager level with 20 somethings, that don't care about balance sheets or profit loss statements, they just care about hype and momentum.
this happens at market topz, at market bottoms people want to buy stuff at a discount to book value, like graham and dodd.
the extreme contrary indicators of this era are the repeal of glass-steagall and the talk about putting social security in the stock market, these are kinds of things that come at market tops. Also you have a fed chairman who has been cautioning about irrational exhuberance in 1996, and over the last year cautioning about risk premiums and bankers being to free with money during good times.
Alan Greenspan can't change the herd sentiment, he is only one man. He is the guy who called wolf back in 1996, and eventually there will be a wolf that comes to little red ridings house.
but he wont' get any credit for cryingg wolf, but get the blame for excessive public speculation.
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