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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.775

-3.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4727)	5/12/2000 9:49:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) of 34857

I'll tell you what, Maurice: the scorecard for operators committed to W-CDMA versus cdma2000 is now about 15-1 instead of 15-0. It's a difference - but if you expect a dramatic response from Wall Street, you may be in for a surprise. DDI managed to minimize the impact of the decision by its waffling and public handwringing about the serious delays cdma2000 is facing. And I specifically pointed out earlier that the cdma2000 camp can turn DDI if they promise enough financial sweeteners. Yes, Verve - the caveat is there if you're obsessive enough to dig it up. Time is like a river, Maurice. And it runs swift and deep in the mobile internet infrastructure market. One 3G contract was a big deal last February. Right now - it doesn't go very far. The Asian outlook has changed since February: after Hutchison link to DoCoMo, Nokia's Hong Kong W-CDMA deal, Shanghi Unicom GPRS deal, several other GPRS deals and the surprising Australian GSM-1800 auction. The gains GPRS/W-CDMA have made while DDI waffled aren't dented by what the Japan's third mobile operator decides to do now. If you doubt that interpretation - check out the two month share price movements of relevant players in the field. Nokia's share price is largely tracking Nokia's global GPRS and W-CDMA deals. That's a number that is climbing above 50 during the next couple of months. The original US fantasy was ending with about 7-3 sales ratio between W-CDMA and cdma2000. So... the cdma2000 camp needs now about 20 new deals to blance the 50-60 W-CDMA deals being made during the next nine months. That's what Wall Street is now pondering. That's the math. When you try to evaluate the importance of individual deal, context is king. Tero

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