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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13724)5/12/2000 10:50:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Justa

MGJ: As an econo man, you must love that "dismal" site. I do too. But as I have said before, I do not think it makes a bit of difference whether it is 25 or 50 basis points. The real issue is what is the Fed. going to do going forward? The market thinks it will get some answers after the CPI and the Fed. guidance. Well, if it does get some answers they will only be transitory in nature

Actually, I find the dismal site dismal most of the time. I am not a fan although there are rare instances I do examine the commentary. I am more partial to bloomberg and the financial times sites-better analyses at theses sites most of the time.

At this point I would favor the Federal Reserve increasing rates by 1/2 a point. They probably want to see a slowdown in the labor markets as well. I favor letting them slow the economy in the quickest possible timeframe. At this point I do not see any recession risk because of rising rates. Perhaps the financial markets would stabilize more quickly with less volatility if this was done.

Is the most recent weak data transitory in nature? Tough call. At some point the economy will slow because of rising rates perhaps we are there now. Mortgage rates are 8.5% plus and inflation, even though increasing slightly, does not seem to be a major issue.

Hope that the Fed does a 1/2 a point move Tuesday and a 1/4 point move in June. The economy can tolerate it and it may once and for all put a lid on any inflationary traces.

As for Bob's call in January, as of this writing, it is still unclear to me whether or not the call was correct when tax considerations are taken into account.

Enough for now.
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