So basically you are expecting a continuation of the bull market in equities albeit with some sector rotation.
Absolutely. We are goiing thru a period of a leadership shift. The same volatility hit the Dow when the leadership shifted to the Nasdaq. Now that the shift has occured, albeit no as smooth as the transfer to Nasdaq earlier, the Dow will maintain its dominance for 2000.
The Dow will continue the "bull market" where the nasdaq left off. Any transition creates a certain degree of confusion this transfer was no different. I see DOW at 12,500 be end 2000 and nasdaq at 4300. So from a point of "highs" Nasdaq will not recover fully this year. No one will be willing to pay the high multiples afforded the teckies that was awarded before. But Biomedicals, Pharmaceuticals, Oils, telecommunications, Resources and Media will continue to rise as we see a renewal in the Asian economies over the next 6-8 months.
Where do you see interest rates in 3 months, six months and in one year?
3 months...up .5%....six months up an additional .25% and 9 months , removal of the negative bias
Do you see real estate prices holding, advancing or declining over the next 12 to 24 months?
Real estate prices will rise as a result of slowing construction due to a rise in interest rates. The wealth effect has not been subdued, it has been "removed" from some, those that never removed any profits from this market, but many are not into "intense greed" and the wealth effect will prevail.
When you say the "economy will be slowed by Greenspan" does that mean you are looking for more of the same however at a more subdued level?
greenspan will give the impression of "over-managment" so as to add stability to an election year. In this process he will make sure he does not make the same mistake of hiking interest rates too quickly as he did once before.
Gold will go nowhere during this summer, the green back will reign supreme, which as a Canuck is not easy for me to say!!<ggg>
the Chief |
