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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: Mao II who wrote (31439)	5/12/2000 1:25:00 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Looking at the SOXX graph for last 6 years that contains at least 2 semi cycles, it seems that whenever it has corrected about 25% to the first significant low (which is the case now, down from high of 1362) to 950 or so, it has taken typically 12 months to come to the past high to begin a new uptrending semi cycle and before doing that, has seen newer lows. It seems that after some bounce we could potentially go lower on SOXX unless we beleive that it will behave very differently which it possibly could since the cycle seems to have extended by about 6 months from normal cycles. However, the fact that everyone is bullishly beating semiconductor drum for 2000/1 does not give a cozy feeling that SOXX will bounce right away, the extension of the cycle on the upside could potentially have its downside companion as well. However this is pure speculation based on how it has behaved in the past and may not mean much since it can behave differently based on fundamental reasons that are driving semis. Does anyone have a longer than 6 year semi cycle graph that shows things differently or could be interpreted differently? finance.yahoo.com^SOXX&d=my

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