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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.795-0.6%11:50 AM EST

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To: carranza2 who wrote (4774)5/12/2000 1:53:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (2) of 34857
 
Carranza... I am not predicting W-CDMA handsets in shops by Labor Day. I am giving DoCoMo the benefit of a doubt. Their original launch date for W-CDMA was March 2001 - now it has slipped to May 2001. This sort of slippage one year before launch might mean July-August date for limited service in the major cities. It would fit the more conservative Japan Telecom target of August.

So "commercial distribution" is not what we are discussing here. We're talking about whether handsets are available in the late summer of 2001 - and I'm expecting a 3-5 month slippage just to be sure.

I'm not sure where you got this information that only emulators exist - no ASICs whatsoever. What was the source for this? As far as I know, Toshiba may be the leader in this area right now - and they are widely thought to have real, under 300 gram test handsets right now. Other chipset vendors are racing to catch up. And some are farther than others. I have never heard any European or Asian industry people even mentioning Qualcomm being a serious contender in the W-CDMA chipset market. So I have my own outlook based on my sources.

I know that many American commentators like to think that W-CDMA is years from commercial application. These same people pronounced GPRS dead on arrival last year. They were dead wrong - that's where my skepticism is grounded. I'm rating the credibility of observers based on whether they called the development of the GPRS market right in the spring of 1999. People who totally missed this development don't have much claim to accuracy on the mobile internet market outlook.

Tero
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