Gene,
You certainly are an optimist.
Yes, I am <G>.
But you're right, I forgot about their laptop business, so the final number is too high.
And in spite of the sub $1500 OptiPlex, most of the value/mid range segment is still SDRAM. Intel plans to move the low end to 810 and the mid range will be moving to 815 according to Intel, both SDRAM solutions. In the performance segment Intel shows RDRAM taking about half the platforms going out of 2000, but I think they're a little behind that curve. In the value segment they show RDRAM starting to make penetration in 2001.
I was only trying to get an estimate of how many RDRAM chips Dell will use, not the market. Dell is obviously the most aggressive of the vendors -- 3 of 3 workstations product lines now use RDRAM, 2 of 5 managed PCs lines now use RDRAM (the two newest lines), and 1 of 3 desktop PCs product lines use RDRAM (the one newest line). I'm not 100% positive of this next statement, but I don't believe that they've introduced a non-RDRAM PC/workstation product line since January. So any non-RDRAM products left on their books by the end of the year would be existing product lines getting near the end of their life. And my guess is that if they've cut the RDRAM system prices in half after the first 4 months of the year, they can probably at least do that again in the next eight. That gets RDRAM into the Dell $800 systems (remember that they don't compete in the really low-end).
Maybe I'm being an optimist again, but having RDRAM show up in $1500 systems already has really got my optimism juices flowing!. <G>
Finally, keep in mind that sales should continue to increase throughout the year, also helping backload the RDRAM numbers. So I think your 10% is way too low with respect to Dell. I don't think it's too far off to say that 50% of Dell's desktop PCs/Managed PCs/Workstations for the year could go out with RDRAM. However, that 50% isn't 50% of 14M, it's 50% of a smaller number (the 14M less the laptop figures) Any guesses what % of their 11.8M was laptops?
Dave
p.s. Nice to have a civilized disagreement, isn't it? <G> |
