Here's the latest on how the sell signal is working for me.
But first, I'll review the performance of the markets
over the past 3 weeks and in the period since the sell signal.
The US market as a whole went down slightly less than 1% over
the past 3 weeks. As of tonight, the US market is 2.1% lower
than it was on 1/12/00, when I was first able to act on the
sell signal. Three weeks ago, it was 1.3% lower.
The total international market, as measured by the average
performance of VWIGX and MNIGX, is now down 3.8% since 1/12/00,
just a little worse than the US market. This compares to
a reading of down 2.1% three weeks ago.
The European market, as measured by the average performance
of PRESX, VEURX, and FEURX, is essentially flat since 1/12/00.
Here are the data related to the above paragraphs.
% Diff. Since 1/12/00
Wilshire 5000 -2.1%
VWIGX 1.8%
MINGX -9.5%
Average of VWIGX and MNIGX -3.8%
VEURX -2.8%
PRESX -2.5%
FEURX 6.3%
Ave. of VEURX, PRESX, FEURX 0.4%
I didn't buy or sell during the past 3 weeks. The only purchase
I've made since the sell signal was when I "locked in"
my benefit on UTEK a few weeks ago. The table below includes
my actual profit on the UTEK trade.
All in all this week, I'm 20.2% better off than I would have
been if I had just held everything. That's a little better than
three weeks ago, when I was 14% ahead.
Here are my sales since the signal, as well as the percent
increase (negative numbers indicate a decrease) in the
prices since I sold.
Security Sell Date %Diff. Since Sale
PBTCX 01/12/00 -9.2%
SRFCX 01/12/00 1.3%
MNMCX 01/12/00 10.5%
500 Index 01/12/00 -1.0%
VWIGX 01/12/00 1.8%
CYMI 01/12/00 -32.6% (Whew!)
CYMI 01/31/00 -45.4% (Whew!)
MOT 02/04/00 -38.3% (Whew!)
MOT 02/11/00 -40.5% (Whew!)
PRSCX 02/29/00 -22.3% (Whew!)
UTEK 02/29/00 -28.8% (See Note)
Average -18.6%
Less Money Market Interest 1.7%
Total Opportunity Cost -20.2% (Negative means ahead)
Last Week's Value -14.0%
[Note: % benefit on UTEK was locked in with a purchase on
4-14-00 at $11.75 per share.]
To summarize, the markets didn't move much over the past
three weeks. In fact, both the international markets and
the US markets are within a few percent from 1/12/2000,
when I was first able to act on the sell signal. The
stocks and funds that I sold, however, have dropped more,
so I'm 20% better off than if I had not followed the sell
signal.
Best wishes,
I2 |
