A bullish position, (for me :-)), on Rambus.
Looking at CY2000 Rambus shipments through Sony and Dell.
Sony is projecting 11 million PSX2's through their fiscal year ending March 31, 2001. Assuming a top of 7 million units in CY 2000, I get 14 million 32 MB chips. (Seem's reasonable that at least 4 million PSX2's will ship W/W in Q1'00. That's less than 500K units/month/region).
If Dell doubles W/S ships this year to 500Kunits, (based on the 1999 IDC report), and assuming an average of 12 chips per system, I get ~ 6 million chips. (Note: this also assumes all Dell W/S's shipped this year are Rambus based).
Dell's servers and notebooks are SDRAM based.
Assuming Dell ships ~ 5 million desktop's in the second half, (from my previous WAG), and assuming they can ship 25% of those systems as Rambus, (and again averaging 12 chips per system), I get 15 million chips. (I think I'm being generous, considering Dell will probably ship a total of 14 Munits of all systems in CY2000). Throw in a couple million more for 1H, and my WAG between Sony and Dell is 37 million chips.
IMO, the other 63 M of forecast needs to come from the other box makers.
Feel free to shoot this down.
JMHO's |
