<<Meaning that you knew this was going to happen in November? December perhaps? January? ... or is it just that, given the swing we have seen, you are thinking how nice it would be to have been able to time the market?>>
the latter. But you see, I feel in retrospect that one reason I got caught up in all the exuberance during the winter was that I was such a naive newbie. So while I kick myself a bit, I also chalk it up as a good lesson. A little bit sadder and wiser now, I see two possibilities: either take a truly zen LTB&H view, or try to use some of the valuation concepts more actively.
Obviously the first of these is easy (every way but psychologically) and should eventually be profitable. But doesn't it seem only logical that people who actually know and care a lot about valuation (Merlin, BB, Pirah, etc.) should put that to use to gain an edge? Why isn't market timing comparable to stock picking, which all of us do rather than simply buy an index fund?
tekboy/Ares@stillworkingallthisstuffout.com
<edit>
Ok, Merlin's is the best answer on this I'm likely to get, and it does indeed make sense. BUT--first, it doesn't really apply to tax-exempt accounts, and second, not everybody is as temperamentally suited to LTB&H as he is. So I still maintain that if I had, say, Merlin's knowledge of valuation and a tax-free account, I'd be sorely tempted to try some market timing. Moreover, I maintain that a lot of people here do just that: hence the cash positions detected in the portfolio surveys, and the way BB and Merlin, for example, were suspiciously able to step in and pick up some bargains recently when I was being chased by Chuckie "the Nose" Schwab and his henchman Vito...
PS I meant what Dale just said... |
