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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (50510)	5/13/2000 9:53:00 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) of 99985

I am interested in yours and others on this thread views on how they think the next few years are going to play out. FWIW I believe this year is closer to '94 than '74. I suspect this year may be "worse" for the market than '94, because the excesses to be corrected are worse. Are we going to see the continuation of much of the same albeit at a more subdued rate. Hmmm. Not sure what you mean by "the same". As alluded to above, my best guess is after an interruption the secular bull continues. are we going to see a bull market in equities, the possible fall of the dollar and what will we see as far as the economy...deflation, inflation or stagflation? No surprises from me. The Fed will continue to raise until the economy slows. Best guess is they'll overshoot a little and we'll have a "mild" recession. Of course the market will recover before the economy, and again as a guess the market will begin its next sustained upswing around year end or first quarter next year. All of the above is written on water and I'm unabashedly mercurial with my prognostications. My last "real job" was as a simulator (complex computer models). For the market at any one time, I keep about five models simultaneously - likely worst bear, likely best bull, best guess, etc. What I gave you above was from the current best guess. As a rule I prefer not to discuss my scenarios because they are subject to constant revision and I don't want to mislead. You have kindly shared your superb charts so I'll attempt to reciprocate, but I must reiterate all the above is only a current snapshot. Just hanging around ... lurqer

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