David,
"still had to read it three times"
But I only posted it once ;-)
The first chop started on 5/5 with the S&P sitting on a Seattle Gap setup that had no 8,3,5 sto support which pushed the 89,3,5 into completing that downward knee you recently addressed. Now the 89,3,5 is theatening to put in another downward knee but the 8,3,5 is somewhat stronger.
The 4,3,2 looks somewhat stronger but there's still no support from the 13,8,8.
Outlook over the next week to week and a half is for still more whipsaws.
Bruce's ratio is back over 1. Watchdog's observation on the Naz's 89,3,5 activity is a good one. But...there are not really any technicals in a position of reliability.
The S&P 13 dRSI hasn't gone oversold and has several upward adjustments of the downtrend. That in itself is a good perspective on the choppiness.
Normally all of the above is typical of a rounded bottom setting up. Although it's tough to latch onto the idea with all the volatility in individual stocks (not to mention the Naz and DJIA), I'd say a rounded bottom for the S&P is what we'll be looking at when it's all said and done. The challenge is to find that bottom either before or as it arrives. A sneaky IHS on the price chart is the usual terminus. Keep volume in mind.
Then there's the reality that rounded bottoms always seem to take forever and they're excruciatingly boring. You picked a good time to golf away the frustrations. >>gg<<
Myself...I'm just going from room to room, painting the entire house, replacing the entire kitchen, readjusting the landscaping and reconditiong all the hardwood floors. That should keep me busy while the S&P fiddles around.
Have a great vacation,
Doug R |
