thanks, Merlin, that's really helpful (and to some extent comforting<GGG>). I have only one more question, and then I promise to stop hogging the thread with you (guess other people have lives!): If you were to plot those dips that you just mentioned against some kind of valid absolute or relative valuation measure, do you think there would be any pattern? I mean, obviously one can't time highs and lows precisely. But with, say, CTXS, is it your recollection that the drops came from unusually high valuations? If not, then fine, these things are random (or might as well be), and we just have to buy and hold. But the charts for the Naz this winter--and spring--seem anything but random, hence my concern.
Moreover, I don't really think this--"It's one thing to pick the right company. It's another thing to know when to sell it, buy it, etc."--is a sufficient answer, particularly for those with tax-free accounts. Just as many studies show that stock-picking rarely works as show that trading rarely works, hence the strong consensus of academic economists behind not just LTB&H but also index funds...
tekboy/Ares@offto"Gladiator".org
PS Fred, you're right, and that's part of what makes this all so fun. Ironically, in my day job, I have generally been a so-called "realist," in the sense that I have tended to be skeptical of the comparable "new era" thinking in the (real) security arena. Same exact conundrum, and same need to make important decisions under uncertainty. |
