WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 169.99

-2.4%

Nov 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ausdauer who wrote (10989)	5/14/2000 5:24:00 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (3) of 60323

Aus - What areally great post. Sums it all up. I have criticized posts about the stock price inthe past but your post demands a little repsonse. Seems to me that although this probably one of the worst if not the worst crash in history. I guess big crashes are ususally preceeded by big run ups and we certainly had one. We are probably now not finished yet becuase:- 1. The real problem is that the bulk of buyers/buying has dissapeared. They have evaporated and won't come back till the 'market' perceives that the Fed is finsihed raising interest rates. Given that no-one not even the Fed or Mr Geenspan expected the economy to be this strong this long it seems logical to assume that they don't know how much it will tkae in interest rate hike to halt it. So arrving at the point where the Fed is finished may take a very long time certainly all of this year. 2. Short term we have:- The Tuesday Fed meeting The June Fed meeting later Fed meetings weekly/monthly/quarterly statistics all of which at best will be neutral and all of which the 'market' will be nervous about and wating before hand. Six weeks till the June Q earnings. And even if they are great...so what the'market' will assume that either they are not worth buying the stock because the FEd is slowing the economy and the earnings themsleves are going to slow down OR the Fed has not yet slowed the economy just like this Qs great results landed up droping the stock prices. The simple fact is that the jest for stocks has gone particularly tech stocks since faced with everything I have listed above what fund manager is going to buy any stock? He'd have to be nuts and so without the buyers the stocks, no matter how good they are will continue to drop till all the gains since October have been given back and then some. I realize that MO has all sorts of legal problems but just take a look at the P/E and even more important the yield. Tech stocks don't ahve the yiled and so they can at least drop to that P/E level. Now I'm not advocating giving up tech stocks for ever but if someone can give me an alternative scenario to the above even at this stage I'd be delighted to listen. Best regards, L

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