Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (24713)	5/14/2000 9:32:00 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (3) of 54805

re. LTB&H Hi Mike, This post is in violation of my general behavior. As we both know SI is replete with jr. high flame wars on a variety of topics - one of which is buy and hold vs. market timing. Rather than engage in such wars I prefer to spend my time more productively. So there are topics that typically I just don't discuss. Because I respect your "level headedness" and am indebted to your stock (and company) analysis, I'm making an exception and broaching a weekend discussion. I must respectfully disagree with some of the views you expressed last night. It's not (IMO) that they are wrong so much as they are myopic. If you consider a sizeable chunk of market history - say the last century - then the bulk of the time, the market is in a secular bull phase. During such a phase the technique commonly referred to as LTB&H works very well. Currently the market is in a secular bull phase and has been since '82. Within the last century, the last two times without a secular bull were the '30s and the '70s. In both of these periods LTB&H would have been a poor choice. As someone who cut his "market teeth" during the '70s (no I don't remember the '30s), I assure you that in '82, LTB&H had a justifiable "bad rep". It simply hadn't worked in more than a decade. Consider an analogy. As long as you are travelling down a smooth flowing river, a flatboat is a good means of transportation. Even if the flow is interrupted with a few areas of mild turbulence, a flatboat still works quite well. If however the river enters a large lake (i.e. no more current) that is subject to violent storms, then the flatboat ceases to be a desirable mode of transportation. What I'm saying here is that perhaps (and only perhaps)without knowing it you have implicitly made a market timing call. By adopting LTB&H as your modus operandi you are calling for the secular bull to continue. The fact that I believe that it will also is irrelevant. What's important is to realize that the market is treacherous and no one technique will work all the time. I have no way of knowing if H. Dent's demographic studies accurately predict when the current secular bull will end. If he is "on the money", we have the better part of a decade before the end of this market phase. I both hope and am betting that he is at least "close to right". All of the above is JMO and is submitted in a FWIW spirit. We haven't even broached, whether timing is useful in turbulent periods during a secular bull (which is what Tekboy was asking) because that is (at least for me) a separate (and lengthy) discussion. As I stated at the beginning, this is not a topic I would discuss on most threads because of the responses it would draw. But on the weekend on G & K, well we'll see. Now I must be off to attend to Mother's Day. See I'm still young enough to have some very pleasant obligations. Just hanging around... lurqer

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next