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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.11

+0.9%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tony Viola who wrote (35510)	5/14/2000 9:53:00 AM
From: Z268	Read Replies (3) of 77400

Cisco - back to fundamentals All the posts have focused on Cisco as being the best - in terms of execution and management. Everyone agrees with this. The question is, how much premium is this worth? The router market, in which Cisco is said to have 80% (at least at the edge)is showing signs of slowing growth (30% and slowing). The optical market, which Cisco is clearly busting to get into, is showing accelerating growth, and at 20B this year is larger than the router market. In my mind, Cisco's multiples going forward are only justified if they can execute as well in the optical market as they have in the router market. NT and LU are a different class of opposition to 3Com, Cabletron, Bay, Newbridge etc., not to mention the impressive line-up of Optical start-ups. Who will dominate in the Optical space. Right now NT has the clear leadership. The next couple of years will be most interesting. This stock will appreciate from current levels, but not at the pace of the last few years. Steve

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