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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: tekboy who wrote (24703)5/14/2000 3:08:00 PM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
tekboy: Hope you will come out of your self imposed thread jail for further discussion.

To quote:

Point one: .....should be able to explain why he or she is likely to do better than the pros. (Hint: Good answers might highlight things like smaller dollar amounts, long-term investing horizons, lack of peer pressure, greater discipline, having read the manual, etc.)

Yes. All those hints are good pointers to why an individual has a better chance than the "pros".

Point two: ...I see little conceptual difference between the arrogance behind trying stock-picking and the arrogance behind trying market-timing. I accept that some very smart people I respect greatly feel they can do one and not the other, but I'm still trying to figure out (taxes aside!!!) why that should be so.

I would suggest that the best way to deal with why it is perhaps more practical for an individual to choose a technology within which to invest, and then leaders within that technology is twofold at least:

the research resources are available

time is available

On market timing:

the basis for judgement is difficult to obtain early enough to act with the quickness required.

The emotional content of market fluctuations "passeth logical analysis"

In brief, careful research, analysis, thinking and weighted selection are possible in choosing stocks to buy and hold.

Timing requires a different set of skills and one huge amount of luck.

And speaking of luck, I wish you luck squared.

Best.

Cha2
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