Quarterly report
biz.yahoo.com
The language changes between quarterly reports
and the annual report--probably meaningless, but
I notice these things. The 10k from March said
The Company may receive up to $24.0 million
in milestone payments as well as royalties on
sales of GGF2 products. There can be no assurance,
however, as to when or if these milestones will be
achieved.
But more ominous sounding is this most recent 10q
The Company may receive up to $24.0 million in
milestone payments, however, there can be no assurance
as to when or if any milestones will be achieved.
Bayer may terminate this agreement at any time upon
120 days written notice.
The world royalites is removed and the 120 day
termination language is added. You would think they
would stick to the same boilerplate, probably much
ado about nothing--but you never know. With so many
shares held by insiders and such, very little available
to the likes of Joe six pack biotech speculator, I
shouldn't think there would be any motive for talking
the shares down before a deal is done. Hard to say.
The Company is continuing to evaluate alternatives
for maximizing shareholder value, which may include
the sale of some or all of the Company's technology
and other assets or a merger with another company.
Just speculating of course, but if GGF2 is mostly useless
at this point in time (recent Bayer patent* notwithstanding)
then it might be more advantageous for Bayer to discard
the CNSI agreement, wait a few years for the various pieces
of CNSI to be sold off--and then come back in a few years
and start up their GGF projects.
So, let's value CNSI without the growth factor, a bit
less than ten million in cash etc, say ten million for
the pain molecule (I would assume that analgesics and
novel pain meds are a dime a dozen) say a few million
for Allergan agreements and ion-channel IP each--pretty
soon we can make an argument that CNSI is fairly valued
if GGF2 is useless. I suspect that is not the case, but
if the shares are trading below a buck by next fall
I'll be red-faced for loading up these past six months.
__
* I should think that everybody has had a chance to
look over the patent, if not here ya go:
Bayer: US6051401: Methods and constructs for protein
expression issued/filed April 18, 2000 / July 28, 1998
The invention teaches methods, constructs and host cells
for the effective expression of a desired protein
in mammalian cell culture. In particular, the efficient
expression of human GGF2 is taught.
"Thus, in a particular aspect, the invention specifically
encompasses the nucleic acid sequence of the expression
vector pSV-AHSG, and of expression vector pCMGGF2"
The CNSI press release of 11/29/99 stated "With 14 patents
related to this growth factor and 54 pending, our
aggressive patent strategy related to GGF2 continues to
build value for our ongoing program with Bayer AG and
our shareholders."
cambneuro.com
I did a trivial amount of DD on this subject, but will
probably not post anything further on this particular
subject--a little like the madman talking to himself here.
I'd suggest that if anybody is terribly curious about all
this, they write the company or show up at the annual
meeting (if there is going to be an annual meeting--
I've not checked on that--and not received anything from
CNSI since last fall). |
