From Tony Thornley's presentation [copied from QUALCOMM stream]. Apart from the prospect of gateway, handset, ASIC, royalty and data sales, this gives a guide to QUALCOMM's interest in Globalstar. Substantial. <...Globalstar risk "bounded". Qualcomm estimates about 10% of revenue
and $0.10 EPS exposure for FY01 for both contract services and handset sales
to the Globalstar satellite venture. The company also has about $650
million balance sheet exposure to the venture. Globalstar is clearly not
ramping as fast as expected, but Qualcomm remains cautiously optimistic. The
outcome of Globalstar is uncertain, and not for us to call, this is solely
to make the market aware of the exposure. We remain comfortable with our
estimates for FY00 and FY01, even in a disaster scenario, because of upside
potential from Qualcomm's core chipset and royalty business.
Maintain Buy and $165 price target. We are bullish on fundamentals for CDMA
and Qualcomms dominant position over the standard. We believe that
inventory issues at Korean customers are resolved and March was the bottom.
We would look for weakness on fears surrounding Globalstar as a buying
opportunity.>
Utha, no offense taken! If the GGMDM doesn't attract any more attention, it's been informative for me [and others]. It certainly seems that shorts remain totally unworried about the possibility that quite a few shares will be cash-accounted.
That's good - it means there won't be any huge dislocation in the market. Now everyone can gently adjust to their perceptions and act in their own interests as they feel like it. Holding all harmless of course.
If the cash-accounters are right, their share price will rise somewhat as the number of shares 'on issue' is reduced and the stock is tighter held. If they are wrong, then so what? Nothing will have happened to hurt them and the share price will simply revert to where it was [or stay right there]. They might even be offered some reward for lending their stock [which I hadn't heard of until a few days ago] in which case they might be better off to lend, be paid x% and see the price temporarily drop down.
Mqurice |
