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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.310

-7.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: JohnG who wrote (4835)	5/15/2000 7:47:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) of 34857

"Brian. If NOK can pull this GPRS-EDGE-Direct Spread CDMA upgrade path off on the poor operators and citizens of Europe they will sell a huge amount of unnecessary equipment that they would not sell if QCOM's Multicarrier CDMA was used and they will slow progress greatly. The European governments will be their accomplice in screwing over the citizens of Europe." And this is exactly why we have concentrated on the Asian GPRS market on this thread. You can write off the European GPRS market as some sort of a nationalistic anomaly. You can't write off the Asian GPRS market. You can't write off the North American GPRS/EDGE market. They exist and they can't be blamed on socialism. Profits come from volume shipments. There is only one mobile internet technology that is guaranteed to produce high volume network equipment and mobile phone sales during the next two years - GPRS. How about doing a count of operators that are doing 1XRTT or HDR trials? And then comparing that to those 100 operators that are doing GPRS trials? That's the ratio that tells the story about where the global market is heading. Nokia has a decent shot at eventually landing about 40-50 GPRS infrastructure deals. This is breaking the back of the mobile network divisions of Alcatel, Siemens and Motorola. They can't compete in the mobile infrastructure field without decent GPRS and W-CDMA sales. They aren't getting them on their own. The first stage here is the "alliances" these companies make with Cisco, NEC, etc. The second stage will probably be a deep crisis in their network divisions. Nokia got this right - and the criticism of GPRS on this thread is simply diverting attention of the real issue. The real issue is this: GPRS may have its flaws - but not having a strong GPRS presence is a horrible burden on any vendor. Tero

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