OSPREY ENERGY-A Pro Forma Analysis
Would you pay 1.00 for a stock that has projected cash flows of .96/share gross estimated for it?s 2000 year??
Osprey Energy Limited, an oil and gas company, is starting to turn some heads and develop interest as they move ahead with their plans to build Osprey Energy into a 200 million dollar company.Although somewhat ambitious, the company is focused on a goal that concentrates initially on a combination of joint venture partnerships as well as structured acquisitions of properties with cash flows, reserves and in field developmental potential.
With the price of crude in the 24-26.00 US range and gas prices in the 2.50 to 3.00 range(US per MCF), as well as the renewed interest in oil and gas sector the timing could not be better.This is evidenced by their ablity to arrange financing as they move ahead with their ambitious first phase of their 5 phase plan.
Back in October of 1999, the company signed a letter of intent to acquire Working Interests in two Louisiana oil and gas properties.This letter of intent was executed after a $700,000.00 private Placement(2 million shares at .35 with 2million warrants at .42 in year one and .50 in year 2) was completed and Osprey Energy purchased a 30% interest in the Livingston Field(approved March 8, 2000) as well as a 15% working interest in the Bayou Choctau Field in November.(pending exchange approval)
But the company has not set idle.In March the company announced a
convertible debenture and a Private Placement.These funds were earmarked to build a cash reserve to assist in the continued future selective acquisitions.In the interim the company has been approved as a Tier One classification which is the senior classification on the CDNX exchange where the company is listed in Canada under the symbol OEL.
In keeping with selective aggressive acquisitions,in April , the company announced that it had signed a Letter of Intent to acquire another oil and gas property in Louisiana.The company is to pay 2.1 million US to acquire a 75% working interest before payout, 50% after payout in a 21000 acre property as well as all equipment,facilities and related engineering data. The property has one producing gas well at present.
In April the company also entered into a financial consulting contract with Thames Capital Pte. Ltd of Singapore(established 1980) to provide advice regarding financing any future acquisitions and to introduce Osprey to it?s extensive international network as they have offices located in Perth and Sydney Austrailia, as well as London England and Toronto in Canada.
The company also has tempered it?s strategy by aligning itself with a strong and experienced oil and gas group in Louisiana and Texas to manage these projects and to explore other acquisition opportunities that may arise that are in keeping with Osprey?s strategy of selective acquisition.
On the domestic front, Osprey has been actively involved in a Joint venture partnership with two senior oil exploration companies in Alberta having drilled 7 wells with another 5 wells in progress or planned.Osprey?s interest is a 5% working interest in this Southern Alberta project.And in Northern Alberta the company owns the rights to 51 sections or 32000 acres and are actively seeking a Joint venture partner to participate in the exploration and development of these lands.
Based on proforma analysis and utilizing conservative estimates here is my take on the status of the various projects at the present time:
1. The Livingston field---Osprey has an approved 30% interest.
There are 5200 acres in this field with two exisiting wells.One well is currently being re-worked I am told and one well is producing 100 BOPD.It is planned to bring both wells to 300 BOPD within 60 days.
2 wells X 300 BOPD = 600 BOPD x 30% = 180 BOPD x 20.00(USD/BOPD) = $1,260,000.00(USD) or $2 million CDN per year
Target is 1.5 million recoverable barrels from these wells.
2. Bayou Choctau-----Osprey has a 15% working interest pending approval
There is 1000 acres here with an option on an additional 6000 acres
Phase 1---Goal is to bring on stream 4 wells in 90 days.The prodution target is 375 BOD as well as 1.5 mcf of gas per day.Using my amateur analysis I have shown combined production at 400 BOEPD(barrels of oil equivalent per day)
This equates to 15% x 400 BOEPD=60 BOEPD to Osprey at $20.00 (USD) or approxiamately 420,000.00(USD) or 650,000.00(cdn)/year.
Phase 2--- In 160 days to bring on another 6 wells to produce 375 BOD and 1.2MCF of gas or 495 BOEPD.
This equates to 15% of 495 BOEPD= 75 BOEPD to Osprey at $20.00(USD) or approxiamately $516,000.00(USD) per year or 770,000.00(CDN)
So in the Bayou Choctau deal the total projected revenue(gross) is $1,420,000.00(CDN) based on 15% working interest.It should be noted that Osprey Energy has a 12 month right of first refusal to increase it?s working interest to 45%.This would change the flow estimates and revenue to $ approxiamately $4,260,000.00(CDN).
The recoverable reserves are estimated at 3.7 million barrels and 2.3 billion cubic feet of gas.
The Jenner program----With a senior partner and a 5% working interest by Osprey, the first of 7 wells has been drilled and an additional 5 wells are either in progress or planned.Although I have not been able to obtain information on these I do know the plan was to try and obtain 200BOEPD/well from the 10-12 wells or 2000BOD in total.With a 5% working interest gross cash flows would be at 100BOEPD or 1 million cash flow per year(CDN)
Reserves are 3-5 million recoverable barrels.
By year end with revenue coming on stream from all projects I have estimated that Osprey should have approxiamately $7,500,000.00(CDN) from their various interests and applying a fully diluted share issue of 7,800,000 shares and assuming the info I have given regarding Jenner is close and Osprey does exercise the additional 30% on the bayou Choctau deal then cash flow per share should be .96/share. The stock is trading in the 1.00-1.10 range.It should also be noted that the 2 million shares in the Private Placement and 2 million warrants are restricted from trading until November 26, 2000 as per exchange rules on Private Placement stock.
The Osprey |
