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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Globalstar versus Iridium, Inmarsat, etc.

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (91)5/9/1997 12:21:00 PM
From: T. Pascal   of 381
 
<<The Globalstar plan is dual mode handsets so that people will use terrestrial cellular systems in urban areas and they'll use Globalstar otherwise.>>

Thanks for your excellent reply! Dual-mode alleviates some of the problems I talked about, but not all of them. Who, indeed, is going to pay extra for the extras? Business travellers, most likely. Farmers, maybe? Great, more government subsidies. No, seriously. Will the phones work inside a plane? If not, what use is it, truly, really, actually? The business traveller guy goes from urban airport to urban airport. What's the use?

<<Globalstar is 1200 km altitude and the phones are cellphone sized. There will be 4 in view most of the time. Why don't you think it will work? Just that it looks hard or something in particular.>>

Well, it's a gut feeling, and everyone has 'em. I could be wrong. But if something is simple, brilliant, and creative, it will usually work. CDMA, for example. But if something is klugy, difficult, subject to restrictions and qualifications, and tight tolerances, it usually will not work. Just one gut against another, I suppose.

<<The signal should penetrate a tree reasonably. Or a person could move away from the tree perhaps?>>

But what if you're a scientist in the jungle, and you need accurate positioning and clear communications? What if you're a construction worker inside a building? What if you're a business traveller in a plane? These are all real life, not hypothetical, problems with GPS.

<<Satellite systems will be more expensive, but there is a niche for them. 4 million subscribers or so is a decent niche though.>>

4x10^6 times what, though? What's the growth, over time? Is it bankable for the next ten, twenty, fifty years? Satellites are for the birds.
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