Hello johariwindow,
I'm going to throw a curve right in the middle of this ... 802.11b ...
I have been following this developing world of wireless, and I have some possibilities that I will offer in what I see coming to spark some discussion ...
1. Bluetooth
I believe that Bluetooth will be used in the "low power" mode for the short range (<30') wireless peripherals. An example that makes sense is my headset/earphone communicating to my cell phone. Today I use a "wired" version and in the future I'll use a wireless version. My cell stays on my belt, or in my suit pocket, or in my briefcase ... the ear-piece will communicate using Bluetooth to the phone.
I do not see the "high-power" mode being dominant ...
2. The "pico-cellular"(?) solution will be 802.11b ... and it is about to explode. 802.11b is a "short range" LAN standard for 11Mbps communications at distances up to ~300' ... the same as current wired Ethernet. Depending on conditions, the standard will "fall back" on it's data rates and can provide communications out to ~1750' at 1Mbps.
I just returned from Networld+Interop in Las Vegas, and I visited the booth of Intersil. Intersil and Lucent/Phillips are the two providers of silicon for this wireless standard and they have built an impressive line-up up partners - Lucent is selling their own product, and have partnered with Apple to provide the iBook wireless solution. Intersil has accumulated a whole line of partners including: Cisco (Aironet), Compaq, Dell, Farallon, Matsushita, No Wires Needed, Nokia, Nortel, Samsung, GVC, Siemans, Solectek, Spectralink, Symbol, Zoom, and many others ... intersil.com
This is not a "one day" standard either ... it is shipping *today* and the prices are quickly falling to unheard of levels. An "access point" which is a "base station" that bridges between wireless and Ethernet is now shipping at ~$350/ea and the cards are at ~$160/ea ... so they are widely available for use at home or the office.
The next step are the "public hot spots" which companies like Nokia are actively installing at airports and hotels ... and that leads me to my next step ...
3. I believe that wearable computers, and portable computers, are going to have at least two, and sometimes three, wireless solutions. The folks that I talked to from Nokia were amazed as I described this to them ... they verified that they are working on "dual-mode" wireless solutions which combine digital cellular and 802.11b into the same unit. This will allow me to access the net using 802.11b when available ... and automatically switch to digital cellular when I am out of range of a "802.11b hot spot". The thrid mode that I see is one that will be "optional" and that will be satellite via something like Globalstar. Fall back for those who venture out to the "wilderness" ... ;-)
I have been accumulating stocks in this space as I have been working with 802.11 for years now. My current favorite is Intersil (ISIL) who was just spun out of Harris ...
I'll predict that this is going to be a huge market and is a typical "disruptive technology" that we will all being hearing about more and more ...
Comments? Discussion? Flames? ;-)
Scott C. Lemon |
