I think for tomorrow with CPI core .02% and 50 basis point hike I am looking for this NDX 3,650 intraday test of resistance potentially before the FOMC announcement at 2.15 EST and where it goes from there is anybody's guess. I would like to see a close above this NDX 3,580 level tomorrow. I have mentioned this NDX 3,580 level numerous times in the archives- it is like equilibrium point between bull/bear fight and by the end of next week going into Memorial Day weekend holiday this line of demarcation will be firmly entrenched. My view is north of equator.
On the upside, if buying orgy accelerates into the close it is possible to get that close above NDX 3,700. If that materializes, I see this pullback one to two days either side of NDX 3,580 before the launch one close above NDX 4,000 before May is out. We would close out the month at this NDX 3,950 level. This level doesn't seem like much but after 31% retracement off highs it is solid start. It would also be a smart 900 points higher off the NDX 3,107 intrady low on April 17th and 800 points higher off the NDX 3,207 low close on April 14th.
On the downside, if we get core CPI at .04% or higher or .25 basis point hike we can go test NDX 3,380 before the day is out. We then have more prodding of lows one last time before we bounce or take on new lower lows.
My bet is the first secenario. fwiw...
Best Regards, J.T. |
