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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 233.22+1.8%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: GST who wrote (103482)5/16/2000 7:39:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
>> -- the current account deficit. That is where all the strains show up -- and that is what eventually breaks the camel's back.
<<

I agree. I'm just saying that reducing the trade gap is beyond the reach of the Fed. If it raises rates, the dollar goes up and brings more imports, making the trade balance more negative. If it keeps rates low, the economy keeps expanding which brings more imports, making the trade balance more negative.

The only outcome I can see is similar to the boom/bust of momentum stocks. They keep going up despite the feeble attempts of short sellers and rational investors. Then one day they do like yhoo or qcom or amzn, etc.... They crash.

I think it will be the same with the dollar. One day (not today or this year) a large trading partner will say: we don't want your worthless paper. We want real stuff like airplanes or computers or Hawaii real estate. And suddenly we'll have a trillion dollars coming back from foreigners and driving up the price of everything.

So until that dismal day, let's enjoy the rally (hopefully) today. Come down to the beach. It is just a gentle breeze. The tsunami is still a ways out at sea.

-Sarmad
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