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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 5.877

-2.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4895)	5/16/2000 10:27:00 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 34857

It's more or less the right time to ask what the hell is happening - the earlier projection was a 10 million subscriber CDMA network for Unicom by the end of this year "Earlier" wasn't very long ago--just a few months as the clock flies. QCOM and its supporters had big expectations for China--I remember the stock getting a good shot in the arm the day of the initial announcement that QCOM had worked out a royalty arrangement with China. That was the initial catalyst for the interim rise from 105 5/8 intraday in late January to an interim high of 160 in late March. When news of a reneg came out, the interpretation was that it was merely a political issue. Market forces (read "CDMA") would win in the end. Well, it appears that market forces are winning, but not in the way expected. In addition to the opportunity cost in China, one has to wonder if QCOM's cheap-royalty gambit will come back to haunt them. Cheap royalties is lowering the bar, which is likely to breed discontent among those with more expensive obligations (the Koreans). Likewise, the lack of market momentum seems to have forced QCOM to be extremely accommodative to DDI w/r/t cdma2000. Do you think Sprint will make a note of that?

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