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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 88.13

+1.1%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: Don Green who wrote (42330)	5/16/2000 12:23:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Hi Don Green; Re Samsung increasing RDRAM production by 50% to 3 million per month. Is this true? Do you have a link? It seems to be pretty bad news for RDRAM if so... This is quite a step down from what was being talked about at the beginning of the year: RDRAM output rises at Samsung, Hyundai March 13, 2000 Samsung said it will increase production from the current 2 million units per month to 10 million by the second half of the year. techweb.com So now the figure is an increase from 2 million units to only 3 million units? Quite the reduction. We should put this in perspective by checking on current and expected DDR production from Samsung: Samsung, Hyundai Boost Graphics Memory Speeds The 64-Mbit [DDR] SDRAM is fabricated with Samsung's new 0.17-micron process technology. Company officials said they expect to obtain $300 million in sales from this device alone* in 2000.* techweb.com Note that the above is an estimate for that x32 DDR device alone, it doesn't include the x4, x8 and x16 DDR chips that Samsung and rest of the industry is beginning to roll out right now. At a price of around $15 each, the above Samsung DDR chip is expected by them to sell about 20MM units, or better than 2MM per month for the remainder of the year. Since Samsung is the leading producer of RDRAM, but is a bit behind on DDR (particularly in x32 size), this would indicate that DDR is quite likely to out-ship RDRAM, in terms of units, for 2000. The crossover to DDR is happening a lot faster than I expected. -- Carl

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