went from 30% to 70% cash,
just before the Fed announcement. Got out of most of the positions, I'd initiated earlier this year (CMH, MSFT, WCOM) at prices 5-15% above what I paid for them. I know those stocks are undervalued, but I think they will get even more so, sometime this year.
The Fed raises by 1/2%, and (more importantly) says the future risk is toward inflation. That means that, unless there are very clear signs of a slowing economy very soon (unlikely), the Fed will raise again, by another 1/2%, in June. For the market to go up, or stay up, on that news, is irrational. We should be seeing a massive sell-off. We should have the S&P 500 at a trailing PE of 20.
In addition to raising a lot of cash, I shorted QQQ at 90.8 today. And I'll short more, in increments, if the market gets more irrational (=goes up more). |
