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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (202)	5/16/2000 4:03:00 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) of 57684

I decided to take on some margin today post Fed rate hike with more ARBA and added PRSF as a new name. btw, I took a look at the CSCO '94 chart and it comes back to me now. CSCO's sequential revenue growth and guidance changed materially that year. I believe this extended the correction in that stock price. AOL took only 28 days to bottom in '94 and dropped 45%. PSFT dropped 37% and it took 53 days to go from high to low. Both AOL and PSFT had nothing wrong fundamentally in '94 (that might be the understatement of the year). My point is that those 2 names are more like ARBA today than comparing CSCO in '94 to ARBA today. ARBA started its correction on 3/8 and it went 40 days until 4/17 where it hit $50 1/4. I bet that marks the low which we might not ever see again. We may have another leg down back to $50ish but I am not betting on it.

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