Mike,
Generally I'm a "here and now" type investor. Always on the lookout as to what will drive the top line(in CTXS bottom line too) growth within the next quarter or two
Over the next couple of quarters, I see Citrix being driven by the same large company deals as before. This should result in strong, steady growth. The only challenge here is if Citrix screws something up. That is why I am going to follow the DSO number closely.
My biggest worry is what's next? I believe current revenue stream will see diminishing growth. I hope to see the ASP revenues kicking in strongly, but that is not guaranteed. So there needs to be other avenues to pursue and over the years, Citrix management has been great in taking advantage of such opportunities. Witness the transition from OS/2 -> NT -> ASP so far. I believe Wireless & Embedded devices (as a platform) are the next big thing and Citrix is once again ahead of the curve.
I see the 2Mps mobile wireless pipe being quite a few years off as I wrote in the post above
In your post, you wrote 5 yrs. I think we are closer than that. I see high-speed wireless devices coming to the marketplace in 2yrs. In 5 yrs, we should have deployment of Qualcomms HDR technology which will really up the bandwidth.
The whole wireless space is about to go through a significant transformation. The critical question that needs to be answered is: What computing architecture will these devices adopt? If it is the current PC-centric approach, Citrix will be in trouble. However, I believe that there are compelling reasons (which I have discussed) for adopting a pure thin-client approach. Such an approach favors Citrix.
I do have to disagree that the confusion of OS that currently exist will be helped by Citrix. That issue will be decided by the vendors and indirectly by customers who will the products best suited to their needs.
The "To ICA or Not To ICA" question is really a fundamental question about how we see these mobile devices operating. There are fundamental questions to answer like:
o Will they allow users to install their own software?
o If so, where will the obtain it and in what form factor?
o Will the devices connect to the Internet? What built-in browser will they use? Will it have Java or not? How will the base software be upgraded?
o What about security? Will there be any? Imagine the ILoveYou virus being transmitted via wireless phones....
I believe Citrix (with ICA) provides a very compelling approach toward solving some of these problems. I feel that the wireless bandwidth providers have a compelling business case for adopting it.
If the PC paradiam wins in the wireless space, the bandwidth providers (Sprint, AT&T, etc.) will not be able to provide a lot of value-added services. They will provide the pipes and switching services will require getting a new device. This is already a major factor with landline service where phone companies are unable (by law) to provide value-added services. Cost of Customer Acquisition and Cost of Customer Retention are key numbers that closely tracked. Without being able to provide value-added services, the wireless space will be totally price drive & become a race to the bottom. This is a difficult and bruising race to win.
Heeren |
