Stan,
Re: CDMA subscriber forecast by Volpe, Brown, Wheeling
<< For those Qcom investors (according to the Portfolio Survey, Qcom is the most widely held at 87% on this thread) that haven't seen it yet, the events slide show is worthwhile >>
Some observations about the slides (no conclusions drawn) just sort of thinking out loud after trying to clear up some confusion I had (still have although reduced) when I started examining the numbers a bit closer and comparing them to EMC forecasts for GSM:
Slide 10 - cdmaOne is Fastest Growing System:400 million subscribers by 2005
- TDMA 5 Year CGR = 56%
- WCDMA 5 Year CGR = * not calculated although shown on chart
- CDMA 5 Year CGR = 60%
- GSM 5 Year CGR = 33%
- Analog 5 Year CGR = -13%
* WCDMA CGR not calculated (at first I thought this was rolled into the GSM number but now I am not sure. I also can't figure out if EMC for GSMA is lumping in WCDMA with 2G, 2.5G, & 3G GSM (total subscribers of its members for GSM core networks). It is projecting 733 million subscribers by 2004E (v. 356 today). WCDMA is 3G and will most typically be deployed on a GSM core network by members of GSMA (some of whom are members of CDG as well) and UMTS Forum, and most typically will be deployed in new IMT-2000 spectrum. I am assuming that the way the forecast is structured that CDMA includes both cdmaOne and cdma2000 which is 2G & 3G and will be deployed in both existing and new IMT-2000 spectrum. Likewise, I am assuming that TDMA, as depicted includes EDGE which the UWCC considers to be 3G and which in this timeframe will probably be deployed in existing spectrum.
Not sure that any of this matters except we use subscriber growth as one of our metrics in evaluating Qualcomm.
The most surprising figure to me is the 5 Year CGR for TDMA, which by 2005 will be somewhat converged with GSM, so expect the UWCC to talk some different growth rates than CDMA, which will create some arguments I am sure.
I'm still a bit confused, obviously, by the way the numbers were presented in the slide. I guess it would have been beneficial to see the presentation. If any of the number crunchers would like to comment I'd be glad to listen.
Slide 11 - cdmaOne Subscribers by Region
- EMA 5 Year CGR = 339%
- LA 5 Year CGR = 124%
- NA 5 Year CGR = 65%
- AP 5 Year CGR = 46%
Important Notes:
** Subscriber data does NOT include China Unicom (which is good since their is a real potential upside here). Appears they are not in previous slide either.
** The 5 year period considered for CGR is through 2003E, not 2004E like previous slide, or 2004E like the EMC forecast for GSMA, so 1 year of this growth has occurred.
I was a bit surprised by the VERY high EMA number and the relatively low Asia Pacific number (even with China Unicom excluded).
Well, thats all the confusion I should present for the day.
I hope I have not added to others confusion.
- Eric - |
