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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Eric L who wrote (24908)5/17/2000 3:58:00 PM
From: Apollo  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
CDMA metrics......how to best measure?

Eric:

<Slide 10 - cdmaOne is Fastest Growing System:400 million subscribers by 2005

Not sure that any of this matters except we use subscriber growth as one of our metrics in evaluating Qualcomm.

I've been thinking the same thing over the past couple weeks. Qcom's growth isn't based just on raw CDMA subscriber growth. Some 40% of present subscribers will upgrade annually, supposedly. Furthermore, some of those subscribers, and other new people will use CDMA in ways other than handsets, ie with PDAs, notebook and PC modems, etc.

So I wonder how accurate, or inaccurate, it is to use CDMA subscribership as a surrogate for anticipating revenues. I'm thinking here that it is fairly inaccurate, overestimating in some ways, and underestimating in others.

I'd like to hear from Ruffian, LindyBill, Merlin and others on this one.

Stan
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