Stan,
Re: CDMA metrics......how to best measure?
<< I wonder how accurate, or inaccurate, it is to use CDMA subscribership as a surrogate for anticipating revenues. I'm thinking here that it is fairly inaccurate, overestimating in some ways, and underestimating in others >>
More rambling.
Raw subscriber data is indeed pretty crude (although IMO, still an important metric). To complicate the matter further, using summary data available on the web as opposed to expensive reports available from research agencies, we really we are not privy to the comprehensive detail that backs up the summary data, and consequently we have to attempt to interpret some of the basic data we have at our disposal, and risk doing so incorrectly (witness the confusion I expressed in my previous posts).
Some of the other metrics we possibly should be looking at are infra sales, handset sales, carrier contracts let, etc. Again, we don't have access to real detailed data.
We have convinced ourselves that CDMA is in a tornado. We have also talked about a new tornado ... the wireless data tornado ... with probably an ecommerce and multimedia tornadoes to follow that one.
I think this first new tornado has begun or is about to begin (or perhaps its just a continuation of the first), but I'm not sure how to quantify this. I'm referring to the CDMA WAP enabled services that have begun here in the states, IS95-B data services in Korea and Japan, IS-2000 trials commencing, Java enabled iMode in Japan, WAP all over 2G GSM, GPRS contracts being let in large numbers and build outs in progress. Now here I've folded in some competing technologies that don't produce revenue for Qualcomm, and I don't know how to sort that back out.
<< I'd like to hear from Ruffian, LindyBill, Merlin and others on this one. >>
Yes ... we meed "professional" help. <g>
- Eric - |
