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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (270)	5/17/2000 6:29:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) of 57684

I wouldn't make much out of one day's trading especially after the advance of the past few days. Today is hangover day as we all face the uncertain post-hike future. We should start seeing the leaders emerging. They will be the ones that show the greatest relative strength from here, though I expect it to be tenuous at first. I read an interesting piece from BofA today that consumer confidence among those younger than 35 took an 11 point hit this month, while confidence among those older rose a few points. The speculation they made is that this phenomenon can be laid at the break in new-economy investments and the recent resurgence in old-economy stocks after the pounding they took thru Q1. Since the younger set are the bigger spenders and the older set are the biggest savers that points to a leveraged slowdown in spending. The economy is cooling. The Fed will get what it wants. We're in the tug of war between stocks that want to reflect growth, and interest rates that want to discount that growth at a higher rate. I have no fear of a slowdown in the growth of the Internet complex, and think higher stock prices are inevitable and signs emerge of a slowing economy.

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