WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 174.03

-0.1%

1:03 PM EST

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To: hueyone who wrote (11105)	5/17/2000 6:55:00 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) of 60323

Are analyst estimates a weapon against individual investors? "You have a note in the summary suggesting you do not believe analysts' current earnings estimates accurately reflect the guidance given during the last conference call. Could you please elaborate on your earnings expectations?" I take earnings projections with a grain of salt. I think that selective disclosure issues become real when analysts start poking around for earnings estimates. Cindy seemed pretty tight-lipped in the past and I expect she gave only very general guidelines for reasons I have explained previously. Many companies seem to give general guidelines that analysts plug into their earnings models, then query whether they are in the ballpark. I base this statement on conference calls I have listened in on. I have some suspicion that analysts may intentionally understate earnings in order to acquire shares, then revise once a position is established. Thus, analyst estimates can serve as another weapon against the individual investor. Analyst estimates can be way off base. Earlier this year I purchased shares in Vishay Intertechnology (VSH). They have already revised (in a rather boistrous manner) the earnings projected by analysts. This has occured on at least three occasions already this year. SSTI did the same thing in the Fall of 1999. This type of maneuver takes great confidence and courage as it risks a class action suit if earnings are missed. As far as analysts' projections for SanDisk I would say the following... 21½ +22½ +23½ +24½ = 90½ I don't personally believe this is in line with company guidance. Ausdauer

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