Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 94.26

-11.1%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: The Prophet who wrote (42406)	5/17/2000 7:46:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman	Read Replies (1) of 93625

As for AMD, the risk of INTC's double whammy (integrated low end Timna processor and corporate desktop Willamette) to AMD's business model is very high, especially once INTC ramps up to .13 at all plants and cuts low end prices by 60%. Whenever this happens, invariably my good friend Jerry ends up pre-announcing a surprise loss based on "ruthless price cuts." The risk to AMD might be sooner than the ramp to .13. Message 13520475 Intel has said that they will not be supply constrained in 2H00 and we have also heard that we are at 50% .18 midyear and 90% .18 by year-end. Consequently, unit costs will be coming down BIG-time this year and I can foresee that Intel will be maintaining or increasing market share [this year] with aggressive pricing. Will this hurt Intel's margins? I think we have already heard from Intel on that front as they reiterated their guidance of 61% for the year just a few weeks ago. And they were fully cognizant of the AMD product line when they spoke. So contrary to the AMD bulls dreams of 30% market share, when Intel isn't supply constrained, as they said they won't be in 2H00, the AMDroids might be looking at losses all over again. Might be a good time to short AMD if anyone is so inclined.

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