visionthing, My favorite was the guy who used the word "procution" in his post below which is shown in bold. His name is BILOW. (What has happened to education in this country?)
Guess this guy BILOW is just a little weenie trying to be a BIG WEENIE! And beside that... he uses way too many hyphens in error.
To: jim kelley who wrote (42365)
From: Bilow
Tuesday, May 16, 2000 6:46 PM ET
Reply # of 42457
Hi jim kelley; Re the Semico estimate of 20 to 30 million units of RDRAM demand for 2000:
eet.com
If you read the quote in context, I think you will find that they are talking about the PC marketplace only. In other
words, the PS2 is not included in those numbers.
Given an industry production of 3 billion per year, that 30 million RDRAM penetration is around 1%. But Semico's
own projection for RDRAM production (including the PS2 usage) is much higher:
Sherry Garber, an analyst at Semico Research in Phoenix, predicted DDR will take half the DRAM market,
but not until 2004. She said the technology will occupy 9 percent of the market this year, compared with 2.6
percent for Direct RDRAM, jumping next year to 20 percent, while Direct Rambus holds at 2.3 percent.
techweb.com
The above estimates are within the 7% bounds that Semico placed on them 8 months ago:
Direct Rambus and DDR each will account for less than 7% of worldwide DRAM unit shipments in 2000,
while a little more than three-fourths of the market will be PC100/PC133 devices, according to Semico
Research Corp., Phoenix.
techweb.com
The same caveat applies to Semico's estimates for usage of RDRAM during the first four months of this year, the
numbers are for PC usage only, and don't include PS2 prodcution (as I noted in a post at that time):
According to preliminary data from an upcoming DRAM global market survey from Sherry Garber, an analyst
at Semico Research Corp., Phoenix, total Direct RDRAM shipments in the first four months of this year
amounted to 2 million units.
techweb.com
To get to dollars shipped, you can take the above 3% market penetration figure and multiply it by the 2.5x that
RDRAM costs. This gives about 7.5%, which is the figure that is most often quoted, and is the one that I gave a
month ago:
#reply-13658060
-- Carl
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