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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 92.72+5.2%3:59 PM EST
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To: jim kelley who wrote (42429)5/18/2000 9:18:00 AM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (2) of 93625
 
Jim, re: <what think you all of the assumptions he is making.>
I see no one responded so I'll give it a shot.
(Do you ever question this guy's assumption's?)

From his post:
Remember that the Jan-Mar production was 8-9 million parts and included a royalty credit for Samsung (the main producer of RDRAM) that was to run out during that production.

Look's like ~ 1 Million RIMM's for Q1. Were they supported by chip sets?

Remember that last Q production was based on 1-2 million parts and no royalties from Samsung due to their royalty credit.

Question. If Samsung is producing 50% of the product, and they only made 1 - 2 million parts in Q1, where did the other 6 - 7 million parts come from?

For Apr-Jun production I think we can safely say that we'll do double that, 16-18 million and Samsung would be paying royalties on all that production.

If Samsung, as they claim, are currently shipping 50% of product at 2 million units/month, where are those other 10 - 12 million parts in Q2 coming from?

He's claiming the equivalent of 3+ million RIMM's will ship in 1H. Which seem's considerably more than the number of 820/840 chip set's will support.

It will be then very safe to assume a more than doubling of production for the Jul-Sep Q of close to 35-40 million parts.

The equivalent of ~ 5 Million RIMM's. If production is that great, why the Intel meeting with the producers?

It would be better if there were link's to support the assumptions.

JMHO's
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