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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Eric L who wrote (24908)	5/18/2000 11:16:00 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Just wanted to add my thoughts on CDMA sub growth.... - This probably doesnt help us that much....but I am not sure that the CDG's count is very accurate. Last quarter the CDG has Asia adding 3.7m new subs. According to the numbers I have (usually taken directly from the operators websites each month) Korea added 2.66m new subs last quarter while Japan added 1.26m new subs. Either the CDG count is wrong or Australia/HK/China lost 220,000 subs (highly unlikely since the accumulated total of these areas was probably only around 5 to 6 hundred thousand). However assuming that the numbers are at least reasonably accurate... The big dissapointment for this quarter was the number of CDMA adds in the US. They added the same number of subs this quarter as in 1Q '99. US CDMA sub growth still hasnt entered a tornado....if you want to see a real tornado, check out the Latin America sub growth. Incredible.... Korea still manages to avoid saturation....they are now at somewhere around 60% penetration and still managed to add another 1.41m subs during April. Japan seems to be doing better than they were last quarter....they are now adding 400,000 subs a month. I hope that this is the impact of adding 64kbps service in January. The big wildcard is still China....I think Qualcomm will need China in order to overcome any lull in CDMA sub growth that might take place in the next 6-9 months before data really hits. JMO....the faster W-CDMA is rolled out the better. It'll be interesting to see analyst estimates for Q's profits for 2002.... Slacker

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