heinz, I will response you as a Chinese who is now in the US. I can tell you that my opinion represent at least 50% of the Chinese opinions overseas, if not much higher. Just please don't take my response personally.
>>i believe the West generally underestimates the China/Taiwan situation. <<
Agree. China does not count in lots of Westerners mind.
>>the PLA has a few extremely hard-line generals who judging from their statements do NOT fear a U.S. intervention in case of China attacking Taiwan. <<
It is not hard-line generals only. Any Chinese, if they still have one bit of national pride left in themselves, would fully support to take Taiwan back to the mainland if they want to be independent.
>>a few months ago one of them stated publicly that any interference would meet with nuclear retaliation. <<
That is just an emotional statement in response to the US threatening. I don't recall exactly what was the US threatening word by word, but I do remember the sequence. China's statement came after the US threatening.
>>it is also not very well known in the West how unstable China actually is internally. economic conditions vary greatly from region to region, and China is far from an ethnically cohesive state. several provinces harbor large ethnic minorities which would like nothing better than to break away. <<
China has a lot of internal problems for sure. China always does. Thousands of years of history shows that. But whenever there is a conflict with foreign power, those internal conflict will be submitted. Problems between different regions, between inner land and coast cities, are economic only, except those in Tibet and XinJiang. And if the national interest/pride is threatened, those problems will for sure have little priority.
>>a war with Taiwan may just be what the doctor ordered to divert attention from the increasingly tenuous economic situation.<<
This seems to be true throughout the modern history, no matter in the East or the West. So if the US is a little bit smarter, it would not push China over the edge.
>>m not trying to predict anything here, just pointing out that one should always keep a close eye on China...it's liable to produce a few surprises in due course.<<
I am not trying to predict anything either. Just express my personal opinion as an ordinary Chinese. And I think the biggest surprise for China can impose on the human kind is the kind of chaos like what happened in ex-Soviet Union. And if that happens, there would be millions of lives dead of famine. Who knows maybe this is just some people up to. |
