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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed
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To: Efthymios H. Zacharias who wrote (33303)5/18/2000 8:33:00 PM
From: re3  Read Replies (1) of 42523
 
KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION #1: What is gold's first upside target, and when is it likely to be reached? ANSWER: Spot gold has gone above $320 twice since the summer of 1999: the first time in late September/early October 1999, and the second time in early February 2000. Therefore, $320 is the likely minimum target for gold's next rally. The current strong bearishness among investors and analysts, combined with typical seasonality patterns, means that this level should be reached by late summer.

KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION #2: Give your two strongest reasons why gold is not going to return to its August 25, 1999 low of $252 spot. ANSWER: The primary reason is that after a 13-year bear market which ended in the summer of 1999, commodities have now undergone a strong bull market which has brought the CRB index to new 2-year highs. The second most important reason is that, unlike the summer of 1999, investors have now experienced first hand a sharp correction in a previously heavily favored segment of the financial markets (i.e., the Nasdaq). Therefore, they are more attuned to the possibility that the financial markets can show volatility in both directions, and that some may turn to classic hedges such as gold in the event that we are in a true bear market for U.S. assets.
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