Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (34427)	5/19/2000 1:56:00 AM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (1) of 63513

Jorj- Not to be a wet noodle, but that DWA chart looked like a very impressive run of years without a visit below the 200 DMA for CSCO, so I checked my charts. I show 3 major penetrations of the 200 DMA in the 90's alone. July of 94 (hard for me to tell what percent below 200, but significant), April-May 1997 approximately a 28% drop below 200dma, and finally Oct 98 with a 22% figure. John seems to have great charts, maybe he can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. The other interesting thing is the timing. From the 7/94 low to 5/97 was 33 months between bottoms. May 97 to Oct 98 was 17 months between major breaks. Currently the clock is at 19 months as we approach the 200 dma near 51. A 22-28% break here puts the stock at 36-40. I'm not saying it will happen I'm just pointing out the potential if it can't hold the 200 dma, and support near here, in the next few weeks. CSCO is a GREAT company, and as you and I have discussed, it wouldn't take much of an increase over their projected EPS growth rate to make the stock "fairly valued". Facts like the above scare me however. Hope it doesn't happen. I need the General to mount a charge.

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