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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 23.21-1.8%Nov 20 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ron Dior who wrote (22396)5/19/2000 8:33:00 AM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (3) of 29970
 
< Do you know what risk-neutral probabilities are. You are the type of investor who is giving away his money to market professionals.>

I AM a market professional. Inquire before you blubber away. I will say that the options market is much more effecient than it used to be... which is actually GOOD for the public [you] and bad for the MM's and professionals [me], but a look at many graphs of implied volatilities over the past 6 months makes it pretty clear that there is still lots of nice gravy out there for those that know how to price an option... institutional option sellers [many times representing those with ton's of stock they want to write agains] are routinely taken down 20 OR MORE point on a VOL basis when they have size. You can pretend it's efficient if you want, whatever.

< Don't you know that option prices do not depend on the real probability of the process but are determined by arbitrage arguments.>

Look at what you said! <Option prices don't depend on the REAL probability>... don't give up your day job... and don't be giving you're money to Mr. Wynn, he understands real probability... and he'll welcome ALL you buyers and sellers whatever your preferences as long as they deviate from the real. The two above are not mutually exclusive by the way.

Good luck, you'll need it.

DAK
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