Geeez....enough man! We get your point. You think QCOM will wallow while the fundamentals "catch up," or due to the slow rollout of 3G.
What about the rollouts of 1X AND HDR in Korea and Japan? Realize that QCOM has 100% of the ASIC business for the 1X basestation market. When does this market kick in? As the Irish would say, that would be "straight away." They expect commercial deployment this year. Phones based on 1X will be promoted by those operators to take advantage of the doubling of voice capacity. That means more ASIC sales, with a rising ASP. The phones will cost more as well, which boosts royalties. You'll see laptops from the Taiwanese with ASICs on the motherboard(already announced). This means penetration rates of 100%, 200%, +++. As the Asians roll out, Sprint and Verizon will begin their deployments, upgrades, etc. The US has hit that sweet spot of 25% penetration, which historically has meant an explosion of handset use. Don't forget the HDR deployments, which begin later this year as well. China? An unknown right now, but I suspect will be on board quite soon. It is a huge mistake to underestimate the earning power of QCOM, near term or long term.
Oh....what about W-CDMA? Do you really think that NTT DoCoMo will deploy their system by May 2001 as they say, without any payment to QCOM? When does an agreement have to be reached with QCOM--prior to any deployment is my guess. That's not far away. |
