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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1652)	5/19/2000 1:12:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 33421

LOL.... you too have a great weekend up there in God's country. well is anyone getting bearish on this market? CSCO within a buck or two of it's 200 DMA. QCOM is now below it's 200 DMA and has made a new low for the move down. I see the Jun TBond has fallen below it's 200 DMA today. the Jun 10 YR is right on a fragile suport line. ------------- Today's Highlights (05/19/00) Consensus Last 08:30 Trade:Gds&Svcs Mar -$29.5B -$29.2B 08:30 Gds&Svc Export (BOP) Mar $84.7B $84.2B 08:30 Gds&Svc Import (BOP) Mar $114.2B $113.5B 09:30 Fed activity - system RPs expected Monday's Highlights (05/22/00) Consensus Last 09:30 Fed activity- system RP's expected 13:00 3 & 6-month bill auction $16.00B Summary US Treasuries slated to open this morning slightly weaker after a choppy overnig confined to relatively narrow ranges. Initially in Tokyo trade prices moved hig haven flows in light of weak US stocks late yesterday and followthrough selling Europe, however, prices softened hit by reports of heavy European national centr Treasuries in the past few weeks (theory to some here is that they are acquiring intervene on behalf of their troubled currencyothers say the move is likely to portfolio management). Also focus this morning on Washington Post article by Jo that the Fed is split over whether to go back to a gradualist approach in June o 50bps at that time. Wash Post's Robert Novak said that Greenspan wanted a 25bps didn't cite any sources. Long end hit too by talk of wanting to take profits o trades on strengthcurve steepened modestly overnight. Focus today will be on U morning and on positioning ahead of the weekend. Next week the economic calendar generally minor numbers. Thursday, Q1 Rev. GDP and Apr Existing Home Sales and Goods Orders and Personal Income & Spending and early closes ahead of Monday's M (see FCI, verb:FUTR topic:HOTN). Recommendations >Jun 10Yr Note: Daily stochastics gave a sell signal. Weeklies in a sell signal We are back to a more neutral outlook ahead but inability to rally is troublesom the 6.50+% yield region or about 95-00 area. Our bias is not to get too bleak i market's ability to hold this support area will be critical. Plenty of negative so the market isn't out of the woods yet. We still think there's a possible reb toward 6.25% yield on 10Yr or about 97-00 basis June but action in here is key. around the recent highs just shy of 100-00 basis June T-note and yield low just cash. The 1998 yield low around 4.10% hit Oct 5, 1998. Last year's yield low 4. 1999. Recent yield high trading January 21th at 6.823%. >Jun 30Yr Bond: Daily stochastics remain barely in a buy. Weeklies in a sell si D=56.49). Back to a neutral positive outlook with a potential rebound to the 96 support in the 6.20% or about 93-16 in June bonds. Resistance around the recent 100-00 basis June T-bond and yield low just north of 5.60% on the 30Yr bond. Th around 4.69% hit Oct 5, 1998. Last year's yield low 5.06% on January 14, 1999. trading January 18th at 6.753%.

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