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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: rsie who wrote (13840)5/19/2000 6:27:00 PM
From: rsie  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
just talked with my chinese connection .....
tonight at 8:00PM california time, the new president of taiwan will give his acceptance speech.

The following is what may happen in the next few months according to my friend from China,

1.the new president will never say "one china" policy or speak of "independence". This will not be satisfactory to Red China.
2.The red chinese are still willing to sacrifice the economy to take back Taiwan. They believe that it is their right to "liberate" Taiwan. They know that Japan and the US will probably get involved but feel that the US will not have staying power.
3.the "war" will come about in 4 steps starting in September.
A.They will embargo the largest port in Taiwan for 1 month with submarines bought from Russia. They will hope to negotiate with taiwan.
B.If this does not work,they will take over a small island near Taiwan--"golden Gate island"(translation).
C.They will then attack the "Pum Hu", small islands around Taiwan and take them over.
D.Finally, they have a superiority of 3:1 in terms of jets. The red chinese feel that they can dominate with these odds and maintain air dominance. They will not want to use many bombs because a great plus for them would be the industry that they get in the end(chip industry). They have many "laser bombs" that do not knock out buildings(do not know much about these laser bombs, sorry). They will take out power supplies as the US did during the Kosovo incident. The head of the PLA(people's liberation army) has boasted that he is willing to sacrifice 200,000 soldiers to liberate Taiwan.

Please do not shoot the messenger.....These are the "free"thoughts of a visiting Chinese citizen in the US with knowledge of chinese history.
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